A Trump Presidency: What to Expect for International Politics and Global Economics

Donald Trump's foreign and economic policies during his first term as president were marked by an approach that often clashed with traditional diplomatic norms. His administration pursued several “America First” policies, which prioritized U.S. interests over global cooperation. His economic policies focused on deregulation, tax cuts, and reshaping trade relationships to favor American workers. His foreign policy was often one of unilateralism, challenging longstanding alliances and institutions while negotiating directly with adversarial powers. This approach, while controversial, reshaped both the American and global geopolitical landscape in lasting ways. If Trump were to win a second term, several key dynamics of international politics and the global economy would be likely to evolve in response to his leadership style.

1. Reinforced “America First” Policy in Trade and Economics

One of the cornerstones of Trump’s political platform has been his commitment to “America First” — a policy aimed at reshaping international trade and reducing America's trade deficit. Trump's administration initiated a trade war with China, imposed tariffs on a variety of foreign products, and attempted to renegotiate trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was replaced with USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). A second Trump term would likely see continued focus on trade protectionism, reshaping the way the U.S. interacts with the global economy.

Trade Wars and Tariffs:
Trump’s first term saw a dramatic shift away from multilateralism in trade relations. The trade war with China was a defining feature, involving tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods. While the Phase One trade deal in January 2020 did reduce tensions, the larger conflict over intellectual property, market access, and technology transfer remains unresolved. If Trump is re-elected, he would likely resume the trade confrontation with China, perhaps expanding it to other regions or sectors, including semiconductors, rare earth metals, and high-tech industries.

Renegotiating Trade Deals:
In addition to his efforts with China, Trump sought to rewrite traditional trade agreements in a way that he believed benefited U.S. interests. The USMCA replaced NAFTA and required significant concessions from Canada and Mexico on labor standards and intellectual property. Trump also questioned the value of long-standing partnerships like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which he withdrew from early in his first term. If he wins a second term, it’s plausible that Trump could pursue additional trade agreements with other countries or attempt to further renegotiate or terminate existing ones if he believes they are unfavorable to the U.S.

Impact on Global Supply Chains:
The America First trade policy had a significant impact on global supply chains, as companies reconsidered their dependence on China and other low-cost manufacturing countries. Many companies, especially in the tech sector, began moving production to other countries, including Vietnam, Mexico, and India, in an effort to mitigate tariffs and trade disruptions. A second Trump presidency would likely further incentivize this trend, with greater emphasis on reshoring manufacturing jobs to the U.S., potentially reshaping global production networks and labor markets.

Economic Nationalism:
Trump’s economic nationalism could lead to more barriers to international investment in the U.S., such as stricter regulations on foreign ownership of U.S. assets or attempts to limit Chinese investments in sectors like technology and infrastructure. A move to decouple the U.S. from China economically would likely accelerate, impacting global stock markets, supply chains, and future investments.

2. Foreign Policy: Continued Unilateralism and Stronger Nationalism

Under Trump, the U.S. significantly altered its approach to international diplomacy. Trump often expressed a skepticism toward multinational organizations, whether it was NATO, the World Health Organization (WHO), or the United Nations (UN), which he argued were unfair to the U.S. The “America First” philosophy extended to foreign policy, which prioritized unilateral action over multilateral cooperation.

U.S.-China Relations:
A second term for Trump would undoubtedly involve further intensification of the U.S.-China rivalry. While some analysts expect a shift toward cooperation with China on certain issues like climate change, Trump is more likely to adopt a hardline stance, especially on trade, human rights issues, and technology. His administration could continue to put pressure on China over its policies in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, further deepening the Cold War-like tensions between the two nations.

Middle East Policy:
His “America First” approach to the Middle East defined Trump's first term. This led to the pulling back of U.S. military forces from several regions, such as Syria and Afghanistan, with the intention of refocusing U.S. resources on domestic issues and China. However, his presidency also saw historic normalization deals between Israel and several Arab nations, including the Abraham Accords, which transformed diplomatic relations in the region. In a second term, Trump would likely focus on consolidating these agreements, ensuring that Iran remains isolated diplomatically and continuing to encourage Arab nations to join the normalization movement. Israel’s security concerns, especially regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions, would likely remain a key element of his Middle East strategy.

Russia and Global Security:
Trump’s relationship with Russia was one of his most controversial foreign policy aspects. While his critics accused him of being too soft on President Vladimir Putin, Trump maintained that his approach to Russia was pragmatic and in U.S. interests. A second term might see continued cooperation with Russia in areas like arms control, especially if it helps the U.S. maintain an upper hand in strategic military balance with China. At the same time, Trump would likely continue to take a critical stance toward Russia’s actions in Ukraine, its cyber activities, and its influence in Europe.

NATO and Global Alliances:
Trump was highly critical of NATO during his first term, arguing that European nations were not paying their fair share of defense costs. A second term would likely see continued pressure on NATO allies to increase military spending and contribute more to collective security. Trump's diplomatic style of bilateral agreements and economic pressure may continue to overshadow traditional multilateralism, focusing on ensuring that U.S. allies are paying for their defense rather than relying too much on American taxpayers.

3. Impact on Global Economy: Deregulation, Trade, and Tax Policies

Trump's economic policies were centered around deregulation, tax cuts, and promoting American business interests. Many of his policies aimed to reduce the regulatory burden on U.S. businesses, which he argued would encourage economic growth and job creation. His tax cuts, particularly the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, were designed to stimulate economic activity and make U.S. corporations more competitive globally.

Corporate Tax Cuts and Global Competitiveness:
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced the U.S. corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, making it more competitive globally. If re-elected, Trump could push for further corporate tax reductions or simplifications. Additionally, Trump could advocate for more tax incentives for U.S. companies to invest domestically, which would affect global capital flows.

Deregulation and Environmental Policies:
During his first term, Trump rolled back numerous environmental regulations, arguing that excessive regulation stifled economic growth. This included withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement and rolling back policies meant to combat climate change. A second Trump presidency would likely see further deregulation, particularly in the energy sector, favoring traditional fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas over renewable energy sources. This would put the U.S. in direct opposition to global efforts to combat climate change, potentially leading to tensions with European nations and other climate-conscious regions.

Global Economic Growth and Inflation:
In a second Trump term, there could be a continued emphasis on protectionist trade policies that could slow global economic growth. Trump's trade wars and tariffs were a significant factor in slowing global trade in his first term. Additionally, inflationary pressures, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and rising energy costs, could put a strain on both domestic and international economies. The global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic could be uneven, with some countries, especially those reliant on exports to the U.S., experiencing slower recoveries due to these policies.

4. Environmental and Climate Policy: Backlash Against Global Climate Agreements

During his first presidency, Donald Trump’s environmental policies were highly controversial, particularly his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017. He frequently downplayed the severity of climate change, and his administration rolled back a number of environmental protections in favor of industry. If Trump were re-elected, the world could expect an even stronger anti-climate action stance from the U.S. He could potentially reassert the U.S. position as a major polluter and slow global progress on climate initiatives.

Renewable Energy Transition:
A second Trump presidency could undermine global efforts to accelerate the transition to renewable energy by continuing to prioritize the fossil fuel industry. This would put the U.S. in opposition to the European Union and other countries pushing for stricter emissions reductions. While countries like China, the EU, and India are investing heavily in clean energy, the U.S. could remain focused on maximizing oil, gas, and coal production for the duration of Trump’s second term.

Conclusion: Uncertain Future or Continuation of the Trump Doctrine?

A second term for Donald Trump would undoubtedly have a profound impact on international politics and the global economy. From trade protectionism and economic nationalism to unilateral foreign policy and climate change denial, Trump’s presidency would likely continue to disrupt the international order. While his supporters argue that these policies are in the best interest of the U.S., critics believe they undermine global cooperation and could lead to economic instability.

As the race for the presidency heats up, the world watches closely to see how Trump’s "America First" approach will reshape the future of diplomacy, trade, and global economic relations. Whether these changes will lead to stronger American sovereignty or a more isolated and fractured global system remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: A second Trump presidency would mark a continuation of many of the policies that defined his first term, with consequences that will be felt around the world.